ATTN TROPICAUX : saison cyclonique (DTN4 12N36W)

tout se passe comme prevu : DEAN pour FDF
bonne prepa, donc pa ni pwablem (en gwada;-)
ça souffle (cl 2), mais moins d eau que Joyce.

Le Marin risque qq degats car ils n ont pas l experience. En Gwada, ya eu Hugo, bien + fort.

WTNT24 KNHC 170830
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0900 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 60.9W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 5SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 25SE 10SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 60.9W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.7N 63.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 5SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 10SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.3N 67.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.1N 70.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.9N 74.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.0N 92.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 60.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z